Climate & emissions in Germany
Two Germany-wide time series side by side: how the climate is changing (DWD temperature & threshold days) and how emissions are developing (Climate TRACE). Deliberately shown separately — they are different quantities, not overlapping curves.
This is the climate series — a different quantity from the emissions in the atlas. The link is cumulative and statistical (more greenhouse gases → a shifted distribution), not single-event causation from one source to a single year.
Climate: temperature & threshold days (DWD)
Annual mean — averaged over the whole year, day and night, and the area of Germany (hence ~8–10 °C, not daytime highs). What matters is the rise, not the absolute level.
The bands on the right are projections to 2100 per emission pathway (RCP), not forecasts: hot days per year as a 30-year mean, range = 15th–85th percentile of the DWD reference ensemble. The gap between scenarios is the message — under low emissions (RCP 2.6) it stays moderate, under high (RCP 8.5) hot days multiply.
Note: Long DWD series can contain inhomogeneities (station relocations, instrument changes). Shown are area means, not individual stations; threshold days are available from 1951.
Data source: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), area means (regional_averages_DE, CC BY 4.0) — data basis: DWD, own calculation (aggregation). Projection: DWD reference ensemble v2018 (CC BY 4.0), change vs HYRAS 1971–2000.
Emissions: Germany total (Climate TRACE)
Note: Climate TRACE estimate (co2e_100yr, all subsectors, annual sums) — the same source as the atlas. The absolute value is higher than the territorial UBA inventory (different scope); shown is the trend, not an official inventory figure. 2026 is incomplete and omitted.
Data source: Climate TRACE Emissions Inventory v5.8.0 — CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and regionally filtered from the original dataset.
Why the curves don't run in parallel
Emissions are an annual flow (Mt per year). Temperature responds to the cumulative stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. That's why temperature keeps rising even as Germany's annual emissions fall: as long as there are net emissions, the global stock grows — and warming with it. Falling annual figures are progress on the pace, not a reversal of the warming already caused. This is cause (cumulative) and response — not two curves to overlay as if they matched.